VIRDIGO INVESTMENTS (closed positions only):
MARKET MOVING EVENTS:
1) ECONOMIC: JOBLESS CLAIMS
‘Though adjustment issues tied to Easter may be at play, unemployment claims nevertheless are signaling very solid improvement in the jobs market. Initial claims came in at a better-than-expected 304,000 in the April 12 week, just under Econoday’s low estimate. The prior week, which saw a major break lower, is revised only 2,000 higher to 302,000.
The April 12 week is the sample week for the monthly employment report and the comparison with the March 15 sample week shows a sizable 19,000 improvement. A sample-week to sample-week comparison of the 4-week average, at 312,000 vs 329,500, shows a 17,500 improvement. The latest 4-week average is the lowest of the recovery going back to October 2007.
Continuing claims, which are reported with a one week lag, also show convincing improvement. Continuing claims for the April 5 week fell 11,000 to 2.739 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 in the week to 2.785 million which is more than 100,000 below the month-ago trend. The unemployment rate for insured workers is at a recovery low of 2.1 percent.
The spring thaw has been giving a sizable lift to economic data, most prominently for jobless claims. Though the question of Easter adjustments is in the background, today’s report is certain to lift expectations for the April employment report.’
2) ECONOMIC: PHILADELPHIA FED SURVEY
‘Activity in the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector is picking up further steam this month based on the closely watched Philly Fed index which jumped 7.6 points to 16.6 to signal the strongest rate of monthly growth since September. New orders are up 9.1 points to 14.8 for the strongest reading since December.
Shipments have been particularly strong this month, up a very sizable 17.0 points to 22.7 for the strongest reading in more than three years. Employment also popped higher, up 4.2 points to 6.9.
Other readings include a small build for backlog orders, a small draw for inventories, and sizable slowing for delivery times — all positive readings for activity. Price pressures remain moderate.
The Philly Fed index fell into the negative column during the unusually heavy weather of February but has since bounced back strongly in yet another indicator that is showing spring strength. The Dow is moving up from opening lows in immediate reaction to today’s report.’
VIRDIGO STATEMENT: The Virdigo System realized gains once again this morning with the long weekend and Options Expiration. The system logged from +1.42% to +29.23% on a 6 day trade. See above for 2014 Year to Date figures.
SPX: Price has ran right up into the Fibonacci Arc. Expect a slight pullback, then a break to the upside as usual. The MACD is moving into positive territory with a bullish posture.
VOLATILITY:The VIX:VXV ratio is simply getting crushed (no surprise there). The MACD is moving into negative territory with a bearish posture (bullish for the market).
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